SpaceX to close above $2 trillion market cap on its debut, prediction market traders say

SpaceX is set to debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, and traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are confident shares will pop. 

The Elon Musk-led rocket company is expected to price at $135 per share, already giving it a market value of $1.77 trillion. But traders think there’s a high probability it’ll zoom well north of there on its first day of trading.  

There’s an 84% chance that SpaceX will close above $1.8 trillion in market cap, according to Polymarket traders. Odds that SpaceX will surpass $2 trillion stand at 69%.

Based on an expected initial market cap of $1.77 trillion, a capitalization of roughly $2 trillion would equate to a 13% rally in SpaceX Friday. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid indicate that SpaceX could jump more than 20% in its first day of trading.

Traders are more skeptical that SpaceX will close with a market value above $2.2 trillion, giving it less than a 50-50 chance. 

A close above $2 trillion would put SpaceX in an exclusive club. Only five other U.S. companies — Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon — have valuations north of $2 trillion. 

SpaceX $2 trillion would also put it ahead of chip giant Broadcom’s valuation of $1.85 trillion. Even at the expected initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would prove larger than Musk’s electric vehicle flagship. Tesla’s market value was about $1.72 trillion late Thursday, according to FactSet data.